More thoughts on the Networked EV conference

Here are a few more notes from Greentech Media's Networked EV conference on October 20:

• While EVs are cheaper than ICEs in the U.S., they are much cheaper in Europe.  For example, in Germany gas costs about $7.50 per gallon while electricity is $0.31 per kwh.  That comes to 30 cents per mile for ICE, assuming 25 miles per gallon, vs. 10 cents per mile for an EV that gets about 3 miles per kwh.  That savings of 20 cents per mile is well above the 14 cents per mile savings that I have been using to show that EVs save money here in the U.S.
• China is already overwhelmingly electric in its transportation.  Most people ride electric scooters that go about 20 miles per hour up to 20 miles on a charge.  Unfortunately the heavy use of coal to generate the electricity negates much of the advantage of the electric vehicles. 
• Should the utilities subsidize solar power and electric car ownership?  I discussed this with one utility representative who felt that it was unfair to do this, and a poor business model.  Personally, I think the environmental benefits (avoiding destruction of civilization by global warming) more than justify subsidizing clean energy and clean transportation.  Right now, as a society, we are subsidizing the oil companies for many billions of dollars.  This should be stopped at once since it is contrary to our national and human self interests.  However, I think subsidies at this stage of solar power and electric vehicles will bring their prices down to the point where subsidies will not be needed in the near future.  And this is in the utilities' self-interest since they are going to be adding millions of new customers for their electricity services.
• I was especially happy to hear Travis Bradford speak since I had read his book, Solar Revolution, when it came out in 2007.  In fact, his book had led me to do further research and, last year, to add solar panels to our house.  I asked him if the predictions he made in his book have been on target, and he said they were.  I did a quick check and noted that his book predicted that solar would cost $4 per kilowatt by 2011, down from $6 in 2005 (page 110)  I read recently that solar prices are now about $5.25 per kilowatt, which is equivalent to $4.57 in 2005 dollars, so his numbers are not too far off.

Bright future for electric vehicles?

How bright is the future for electric vehicles (EVs)?  I just spent the day trying to find out at the Greentech Media  conference--"The Networked EV" in San Francisco.  I joined 100 participants who listened to 18 speakers and panelists.  Keynote speaker Travis Bradford summed it up saying, "EVs may be slow out of the gate. ..but the genie can't go back in the bottle."  David Leeds, from Greentech Media Research said there would be "12 - 15 new models" of EVs coming out in 2012.  Josh Gerber of San Diego Gas & Electric said, "Dealers sell every vehicle they can get, very quickly," as he noted that there are 800 EVs in their service area and that 1/3 of those households have solar panels.  Felix Kramer of CalCars declared, "We have arrived in a major way. . .No one knows the future, but we can do a lot to improve the chances" for EVs.

Overall the feeling was one of cautious optimism.  Most speakers were on the conservative side pointing to the need to overcome range anxiety for pure electric vehicles, the high prices for EVs in general and the Volt in particular, the sparse availability of public charging stations, and a host of misperceptions about reliability and the true savings of EVs due to low operating costs.  Several speakers felt that the enthusiasm of early adopters would flatten out and that additional incentives (e.g. tax credits, permission to use HOV lanes, policy support by government) would be needed. 

Travis Bradford argued that "EVs are already cheaper" showing that an EV could save $837 per year compared to an internal combustion engine (ICE) car.  He also said that the infrastructure is already in place for most U.S. Americans who have garages with outlets.  And he contended that current battery technology is OK and that prices are dropping rapidly.  He said that the ICE "has a competitor," and that "there's nothing better to sharpen your mind than somebody coming to take your business."  Because of that he warned that the new CAFE standards would lead to much more competitive ICE cars, so it will be difficult for EVs to stay ahead in the price competition. 

Travis Bradford

Both Bradford and Kramer felt that extended range EVs (like the Volt) or plug-in hybrid EVs (like the new Prius due out next year) were more likely to meet the needs of the mass market; however, they were both very enthusiastic about the Leaf and other pure electric vehicles as well.  Kramer said his family was the first anywhere to own both a Leaf and a Volt.

Kramer gave the most impassioned plea for EVs. (His segment was originally cast as a debate, but apparently no one wanted to take the opposing side.)  He said, "They [EVs] have to succeed; we're at the end of business as usual" citing climate change and energy shortages.  He said that not "believing in global warming" is like "not believing in gravity."  He explained that EVs are "cleaner, cheaper, domestic" and that these traits bring together a diversity of constituencies ranging from "tree huggers" to "evangelicals".  He also added that he is planning a move to Berkeley so they can be closer to the Bay Area Rapid Transit station, saying,  "The best mile is a nega-mile; EV miles are good but we need to reduce total vehicle miles."

Kramer went on to argue that what is needed is what CalCars refers to as the "Big Fix."  He points out that even if 100% of all new cars are EVs by 2025, it will still take a long time to convert the entire fleet.  Therefore, we need to convert existing cars, especially large gas guzzlers, to hybrids, to extended range EVs, or to pure EVs.  He explained that the technology is in place for all of these and that companies such as ALTe in Michigan and Via Motors in Utah are getting ready to do this in a big way. 

Felix Kramer

The conference did have some differences of opinion.  Saul Zambrano from PG&E said that "Level 1 [110 volt] chargers are OK for daily needs."  However, David Leeds, responded, "Level 1 is like a dial-up connection." and asked how many people still used dial-up.  (no hands went up).  "Level 2 (220 Volts) is needed," he stated.  [Note:  personally, I think the Level 1 would be adequate for our Volt, but I very much enjoy having the faster Level 2 installed.  This would have cost us about $2,300 but we were subsidized, so it only cost us about $500.  If we had had to pay the full price, I'm not sure it would have been worth it for our Volt, which can charge fully in about 9 hours.  However, if we had a Leaf, which might take 12 hours or more to charge, I think the 220 volt charger would be very important to have.]

Another contentious issue was the proposed change and increase in rates for EVs by PG&E.  (see post from last week for more details).  Zambrano said that the E-9 rates "need to be redesigned" and Dan Bowermaster, also from PG&E was more forthcoming when he said, "E-9 doesn't cover the cost to serve."

All in all the conference was very stimulating and informative.  Congratulations to Greentech Media for sponsoring the event, and thanks to PG&E for hosting the conference.  Of course there are many unanswered questions about the future.  Leo McClosky from Airbiquity, Inc, a company the connects EVs wirelessly such as through the Chevy Volt's On Star system, said "We don't know enough about what's going to stop us."  Hopefully what we don't know, won't stop us.